Thu, Jul 17 2025, 3:55 PM
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on th...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 2:51 PM
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we ...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 11:52 AM
“I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You're an irresponsibl...
Thu, Jul 17 2025, 10:52 AM
There were multiple economic reports on tap this morning (4 of them in the 8:30am slot), but the headliner on a Retail Sales day is almost always goin...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 3:06 PM
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 11:52 AM
JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the ...
Wed, Jul 16 2025, 10:21 AM
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a di...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 4:08 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 11:53 AM
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create ...
Tue, Jul 15 2025, 9:29 AM
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those ...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 3:27 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tues...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 2:59 PM
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is t...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 11:50 AM
In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by F...
Mon, Jul 14 2025, 10:33 AM
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are i...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 5:09 PM
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcemen...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 1:45 PM
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 11:40 AM
Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin ...
Fri, Jul 11 2025, 10:31 AM
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports st...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 5:07 PM
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Bonds technically lost a small amount of ground today, but i...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 4:49 PM
Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that mome...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 11:46 AM
Lenders and servicers have entire sets of policies and procedures based on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declaring an emergency in a ...
Thu, Jul 10 2025, 11:33 AM
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regul...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 4:30 PM
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 3:35 PM
It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates. The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movem...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 10:09 AM
Anyone who's spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions. Specifically, they are for suckers--at least in t...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 9:17 AM
Mortgage application activity bounced higher last week following a drop in rates to the lowest levels in 3 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s ...
Wed, Jul 9 2025, 8:33 AM
If you think that everything is great in the U.S. economy, maybe it’s not. At least in New Jersey. While many residents are frolicking on the Jersey S...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:44 PM
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one ...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 3:26 PM
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in ju...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 12:17 PM
We’re in the summer travel season. TSA will be eliminating its “shoes off” policy, and many will be sampling today’s rollout of Spicy McMuffin breakfa...
Tue, Jul 8 2025, 11:26 AM
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front....
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continue...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 3:13 PM
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower o...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 11:51 AM
The nation is gripped with the flooding in Texas, the loss of human life and property, and how best to prevent future similar occurrences given the in...
Mon, Jul 7 2025, 10:16 AM
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to i...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 3:25 PM
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was eve...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 2:56 PM
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as ...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 11:48 AM
Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 10:41 AM
Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association...
Thu, Jul 3 2025, 10:23 AM
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, t...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally cam...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 11:51 AM
“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You c...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 3:09 PM
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 11:50 AM
“Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
